Our clients have received a lot of confusing information about what is happening in the global markets, economies and governments. For many people, this confusion has led to an uncertainty about where to focus, when to be concerned, and when to simply shut out the “noise” of information overload. We have been getting many inquiries from our clients who are concerned about the federal government shutdown and the upcoming debt ceiling decision. In consideration of general investors’ experiences with the bear markets of 2000-02 and 2008, we understand their concerns, and we are happy to offer our thoughts.
We believe that a short-term government shutdown will have a minor impact on the economy, and at the same time, no one can accurately forecast the consequences of a default on our debt. It does not matter what an investor reads from widely dispersed articles or sees on TV shows; forecasting is impossible and futile. At a conference for financial advisors last week, several of the Kramer Financial staff heard an update from Bob Benmosche, who is President and CEO of AIG, regarding his meeting with President Obama on October 2nd. Mr. Benmosche was optimistic that both sides understand what is at stake as it relates to the debt ceiling and are determined not to allow a default to take place.
It is important to remember that major financial and economic crises have happened over the years. For example, the following crises (just to name a few) occurred*: